Foot-dragging on climate change: An opportunity for Britain to step up
The Memorandum | No. 23.2024
Those who thought there would be bold action on climate change through increased international cooperation were disappointed.
Last month, Baku, Azerbaijan hosted the 29th United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference – more commonly known as the Conference of Parties (COP29). These annual summits have played an important part in the global conversation to tackle climate change by bringing nations together to discuss coordinated action to limit carbon emissions.
There have been some notable milestones in previous COP meetings. COP3, held in Kyoto in 1997, led to the first legally binding climate treaty. It committed countries to limit and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with agreed individual targets. COP21, held in Paris in 2015, resulted in an international treaty in which countries committed to limiting global warming to below 2°C, and ideally below 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels.
But the last few COPs have seen global progress wane. Key experts, including a former UN Secretary General and former UN climate chief, have said that the COP summits are ‘no longer fit for purpose’. The last two summits have been hosted by major fossil fuel exporters (COP28 was held in the United Arab Emirates), with COP presidents who undermined efforts to reduce fossil fuel usage.
And it says something about the convening power of COP that leaders from the 13 biggest emitters of carbon – including the People's Republic of China (PRC), the United States (US) and India – chose not to attend the summit in Baku. Those countries were responsible for more than 70% of last year’s greenhouse gas emissions. It is therefore unsurprising that the outcomes of COP29 fell short of the scale of the challenge.
This is a sign of the times. The world has changed rapidly in recent years; the geopolitical context is not the same as it was when COP3 and COP21 took place. In a more contested and volatile world, the appetite for acting on global warming is shrinking.
Those who thought there would be bold action on climate change through increased international cooperation were disappointed.
While the space to tackle climate change through cooperation and forums such as COP is decreasing, the world continues to warm rapidly. 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record. For 16 consecutive months – from June 2023 to September 2024 – the global average temperature exceeded the record for that month.
In an environment where many countries are dragging their feet on climate change, the UK should seek to use this opportunity to take a lead.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House in January will see US priorities change. The new Republican administration is expected to re-exit the Paris Agreement, but may go further and try to withdraw from the COP process itself – but this might not be easy from a legal perspective.
What’s more, in his 2024 campaign, Trump championed the slogan ‘drill, baby, drill’. He has also pledged to cut back the Inflation Reduction Act, one of the key pieces of legislation passed by his predecessor, Joe Biden. He said ‘My plan will terminate the Green New Deal, which I call the Green New Scam. Greatest scam in history, probably.’ Such a move could hand the mantle of climate leadership to the PRC.
And yet the PRC is by far the world’s largest polluter. Beijing has argued that its industrial emissions are needed to provide technology and goods for the global energy transition. The PRC is the world’s leading producer and installer of green energy; it has a stranglehold over the solar industry, as well as minerals such as those needed for wind turbines and batteries. The PRC may also be using forced labour in Xinjiang to produce materials and component parts for solar panels.
If the US changes direction on climate policy, the PRC may expand its power to fill emerging power vacuums and exert more influence through the construction of green infrastructure in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. All while using its industrial might to throttle green manufacturing across free and open nations.
In an environment where many countries are dragging their feet on climate change, the UK should seek to use this opportunity to take a lead. The new Labour government has placed tackling climate change at the heart of its policy agenda, with its manifesto stating the party’s intention to make Britain a clean energy superpower. This government launched a diplomatic push at COP29 to advance its climate agenda with the Prime Minister, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, and Foreign Secretary in attendance.
It was also at COP29 that Britain announced that its next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) will cut the country’s emissions by 81% compared with 1990 levels by 2035, launched the UK-led Global Clean Power Alliance, and reaffirmed Britain’s commitment to provide £11.4 billion in climate finance between 2021 and 2026.
But COP is not the only way for the world to tackle climate change. If anything, as the world’s talking shop on climate change, it crowds out discussions for other, more effective, ways the world can act.
Britain should build on its strength as a science, innovation and technology powerhouse to offer a new model of climate leadership.
In a world where governments have tight fiscal constraints, rising energy bills, and increasing cost of living, conversations about climate financing are not resonating with many voters. Focusing on green innovation, and demonstrating that it is good for the planet and for growth, could prove highly effective.
Under the last Trump administration, several departments – such as the US Department of Energy and the Department of Agriculture – were told not to talk about climate change. The new Trump administration may go further and make changes to the US Global Change Research Programme, which coordinates federal climate research, as well as to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an agency tasked in part with monitoring sea-level rise. These types of constraints will make life hard for US climate scientists and green innovators.
So the UK should seize this opportunity to create an environment so that the world’s best and brightest climate scientists and entrepreneurs, from the US and around the world, feel welcome in the UK. For example, Britain should consider creating a new, unique visa scheme for these skilled workers. The UK could also provide more favourable tax incentives and improve Enhanced Capital Allowances for green businesses relocating to Britain. In doing so, such academics and innovators could continue working on what they are passionate about and they can contribute to the UK’s climate leadership and build its green economy.
The international community is losing momentum in addressing climate change, and the COP summits have become a talking shop. This presents a unique opportunity for Britain to step up and lead the way. By focusing on green innovation and creating a welcoming environment for the world’s best climate scientists, entrepreneurs and businesses, the UK can position itself as a global leader in the fight against climate change, focused on grassroots innovation and solutions.
Dr Mann Virdee is a Senior Research Fellow in Science, Technology, and Economics at the Council on Geostrategy and leads the Caudwell Strong Britain project.
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