Banking on defence: Britain springs into action
The Cable | No. 13.2025
Welcome to the 36th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
Over the last week, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, has focused on developing the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ with France. While the plan is still under development, the steady stream of meetings between national leaders and military chiefs shows growing determination among many free and open nations. The actions and rhetoric of Donald Trump, President of the United States (US), appear to have jolted Europe into action. The question is: will it stick?
Welcome back to The Cable!
A statement of defence
On 26th March, Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, presented her Spring Statement to Parliament, which provided an update to His Majesty’s (HM) Government’s spending and economic policy following the budget released in autumn 2024. The United Kingdom (UK) finds itself in an unfavourable position: on one hand, it faces the worst geopolitical environment since the Cold War; on the other, it also continues to struggle with stagnant growth, falling living standards and decaying critical infrastructure, all compounded by an ageing population and the increasing likelihood of a global trade war unleashed by Trump. Within this pincer, Reeves has been forced to make hard choices to keep within her fiscal rules, namely significant welfare cuts combined with a slight increase in defence and capital spending.
While there were few bright spots in the statement, the Chancellor was clear on one priority, as defence and security were mentioned over 30 times during her speech, including a desire to ‘make the UK a defence industrial superpower’ – all very much in keeping with her concept of ‘securonomics’. Reeves also announced an extra £2.2 billion for the Ministry of Defence (MOD) in the coming financial year.
Likewise, the statement provided some clarity on HM Government’s defence priorities, with the creation of a ring-fenced pot of £400 million set aside for defence innovation and a declaration that a minimum of 10% of the MOD’s equipment budget will be focused on new technologies such as drones and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Similarly, £200 million has been allocated to support nuclear submarine production and upgrades for naval ports. Overall, the message was clear: Britain needs to increase defence spending to reinvigorate the economy and meet the challenges it faces. But will the new allocations be enough?
Key diplomacy
On 27th March, Sir Keir travelled to France to co-host a ‘coalition of the willing’ meeting with Emmanuel Macron, President of France. The leaders of around 20 countries gathered in Paris to discuss the future of Ukrainian security and to advance the development of a so-called peacekeeping force to be deployed to Ukraine if a ceasefire is agreed upon. In a speech following the meeting, Sir Keir condemned Russia for continuing to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure and for dragging its feet in negotiations. He went on to call for European nations to increase ‘military pressure’ on Moscow.
Last week Sir Keir also spoke with several world leaders, the most important of which were:
On 27th March, the Prime Minister met Mark Rutte, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), in Paris. The pair agreed that Europe must step up its support to Ukraine and maintain pressure on Russia. Sir Keir also reiterated Britain’s ‘unwavering commitment to NATO’. Finally, they acknowledged the vital role of the US in the formation of a ceasefire agreement, and confirmed that Europe ‘stands ready to support a durable and lasting peace when it comes’.
On 30th March, Sir Keir held a phone conversation with Trump. The pair discussed the ongoing negotiations on a UK-US economic prosperity deal, agreeing that talks will continue this week. They also discussed Ukraine, with Sir Keir updating the President on the progress of the coalition of the willing following the meeting in Paris on the 27th. Both agreed on the need to keep up the collective pressure on Putin.
The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) was active across the world over the last week, with top actions including:
As South Sudan hurtles towards another civil war, the FCDO has advised all British citizens to leave the country, while also withdrawing most of its diplomatic staff.
The FCDO has sent £10 million in aid to Myanmar following the 7.7 magnitude earthquake which struck the country’s central Sagaing Region on 28th March. This funding aims to offer relief in the areas hit hardest by the earthquake, and will provide food and water supplies, medicine and shelter.
Last week, the FCDO sanctioned figures responsible for serious human rights violations and abuses during the Sri Lankan Civil War. The measures include UK travel bans and the freezing of assets.
Defence
Last week, the third annual UK-France All Military Chiefs meeting took place in London, bringing together both countries’ heads of defence. This meeting focused on efforts to step up European security, developing the coalition of the willing and securing a lasting peace in Ukraine. Additionally, the meeting allowed for in-depth dialogue ahead of the UK-France Summit in the summer to enhance the 2010 bilateral defence Lancaster House Treaties. Following the meeting, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, noted that ‘The combined convening power of Britain and France is immense.’
Due to the increase in defence spending set out in the Spring Statement, the Royal Navy has announced it will equip four of its warships with DragonFire, an advanced laser-directed energy weapon, by 2027 – an uplift from the previous aim of installing one DragonFire system by this date. DragonFire is a high-precision laser capable of destroying drones and other aerial targets at short and medium range, providing a cost-effective means to counter aerial threats.
Royal Air Force (RAF) Eurofighter Typhoon multirole aircraft arrived in Poland last week to take part in NATO’s Operation CHESSMAN, part of the alliance’s Enhanced Air Policing mission. The Eurofighter Typhoons are expected to conduct regular patrols and quick reaction alert duties alongside other NATO aircraft.
Environment and climate
Mike Kane, Minister for Aviation, Maritime and Security, unveiled a new maritime decarbonisation strategy, with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from shipping by 30% by 2030, 80% by 2040 and to zero by 2050. The shipping sector will be brought under the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS), with operators of the highest-polluting vessels set to pay more for their greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, the strategy will also see investment in green shipping technologies and coastal infrastructure.
According to provisional data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC), the winter peak of Arctic sea ice fell to around 800,000 square kilometres in 2025, the lowest since satellite data began 47 years ago.
How Britain is seen overseas
War on the Rocks released a commentary piece arguing that a joint British-French ‘Eurodeterrent’ is the best option for Europe if the current US nuclear umbrella loses credibility due to the actions of the new administration in Washington. However, the article highlights a number of significant hurdles before a European nuclear deterrent can be realised.
How competitors frame Britain
The Russian Embassy to the UK released a statement – reported by TASS – condemning London and Paris for ‘undermining efforts to find a peaceful solution to the Ukraine issue’ by developing a coalition of the willing. The statement also claims that Britain was ‘one of the architects of the Ukrainian Crisis’: it accuses Boris Johnson, then Prime Minister, of torpedoing talks in Istanbul. Russia has serious problems making up its mind about Britain: is the country just a ‘small island’ or all-powerful?
Maria Zakharova, Spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, quoted in Russia Today, has blamed Britain and France for enabling a recent attack against the Sudzha pipeline in Russia. Branding the strike as part of Kyiv’s ‘terror campaign’ against Russia, Zakharova stated that the ‘command came from London’. A certain hysteria appears to be taking hold in the Kremlin about the support Britain and France have been providing Ukraine.
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
Transatlantic relations have not been as fractured for some time as they are today. On one side of the Atlantic, the Trump administration is now carrying out long-held American desires to reduce its country’s defence presence in Europe to focus on the Indo-Pacific. There has also been bellicose American rhetoric regarding Greenland, regular statements deriding the other’s political ecosphere from both sides of the Atlantic, and European concerns about how militarily vulnerable they have made themselves after years of free riding. For geopolitical, geoeconomic, cultural and historical reasons, the UK has often found itself choosing between one side of the Atlantic or the other.
So, how does Britain think about divergent interests and values between European countries (although of course these themselves do not have homogenous outlooks) and the US:
Pro-European camp: Their fortunes have ebbed and flowed since the Second World War. Their numbers grew with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, due to a desire to build stronger economic and security ties with the European Union (EU), and since Trump’s re-election they have been joined by moderate Atlanticists concerned about American trustworthiness. They wish for the UK to be as closely aligned with the direction of travel of the EU as possible, the belief being that by existing within a ‘fortress Europa’, Britain will be better buffered against global shocks.
Pro-American camp: This camp brings together a mixture of EU sceptics and realists. They look at the economic growth the US has been able to achieve in recent years, as well as the extraordinary technological, financial and military might the US is able to muster. Given these factors, they believe Britain should hitch itself as closely as possible to America to benefit from its power. In recent months, many have left this camp due to concerns about the rhetoric employed by the current administration.
The ‘bridge’ camp: Tony Blair summed up the idea of the UK as a ‘bridge’ between the divides of Europe and America in a post-9/11 world. Today, this camp has two distinct subdivisions. The first is the idealists, who view transatlantic divides as a danger and want Britain to try its best to keep the transatlantic relationship from falling apart. The second is a more realist take, which sees transatlantic division as an opportunity for the UK to maximise the benefits from its relations with both the US and the EU.
These three camps (one could make the argument there is a fourth ‘isolationist’ camp which is disinterested in any of the above) have long tussled over the direction of travel for British grand strategy. The debate over whether the UK is a European country or a maritime (or ‘Anglo-Saxon’) country has been going on for decades, and it only looks set to continue. But, given the growing divide between the US and the EU, the answer to the debate has arguably never been more important than it is now.
This section is named after Gould Francis Leckie, author of An Historical Survey of the Foreign Affairs of Great Britain (1810) – the first modern geopolitical text.
If you found this Cable useful, please subscribe or pledge your support!
What do you think about this Cable? Why not leave a comment below?
"Finally, they acknowledged the vital role of the US in the formation of a ceasefire agreement, and confirmed that Europe ‘stands ready to support a durable and lasting peace when it comes’."
Trump and Putin are closely aligned. What sort of "peace" do leaders imagine that RU-US will offer to Ukraine?
I understand politicians routinely default to any choice that kicks pain down the road. When RU rejected an unconditional ceasefire it should have been obvious that even a short term relief from tough choices was unrealistic.
RU will never accept NATO country peacekeeping troops. Maybe the peacekeeping talk is for signaling. But unfortunately the euro leaders are not preparing for the likely scenario of Trump cutting aid in coming weeks.