Britain alternates between Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific commitments
The Cable | No. 11.2025
Welcome to the 34th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
In another intensive week of diplomacy, His Majesty’s (HM) Government has been focused on enhancing the United Kingdom’s (UK) foreign and defence policy. Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, hosted a virtual summit of the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ to support Ukraine. Likewise, as Sir Keir focused on the Euro-Atlantic, a number of his ministers travelled to Asia to shore up Britain’s interests in the Indo-Pacific.
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Britain prepares a plan of action for Ukraine
Efforts by the Trump administration to bring an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have continued to evolve over the last couple of weeks. Talks between Ukraine and the United States (US) in Saudi Arabia last week ended with compromises which could lead to a way forwards. For Donald Trump, President of the US, Kyiv agreed in principle to an ‘interim 30-day ceasefire’, while in return, Washington resumed military support and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The White House is also set to engage with the Kremlin to sign the agreement.
Britain is believed to have played an unsung but influential part in bringing Ukraine and the US back to the negotiating table after the disastrous meeting between Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, on 28th February. The next step for HM Government is ensuring Ukraine’s security and territorial integrity if a ceasefire deal becomes reality.
On 15th March, Sir Keir hosted a virtual summit of more than 20 countries – which could become part of a coalition of the willing – to push those in attendance to step up their support for Ukraine. Following the summit, it appears as if the Prime Minister’s strategy is starting to take shape. Firstly, he called for ‘maximum pressure’ to be applied to Russia to ‘weaken [Vladimir] Putin’s war machine.’ Secondly, Sir Keir is applying pressure on Russia to agree to the American-led ceasefire deal, criticising Russia for employing delaying tactics and calling on Moscow to demonstrate that it is serious about peace. Finally, there is the development of the coalition of the willing to secure a lasting peace if a deal can be reached. Sir Keir called for the acceleration of practical action with a meeting of the military chiefs of approximately 30 of Kyiv’s partners, set for 20th March in London, to ‘game out’ how they would commit troops to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal.
However, the lack of a US backstop for such a force remains a critical obstacle to the Prime Minister’s plans. It appears as though HM Government will have to continue its diplomatic efforts to keep America engaged in European security.
Key diplomacy
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, visited the Philippines on 8th March. While there, he criticised the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for its increasingly aggressive actions in the South China Sea, which Lammy called ‘dangerous and destabilising’, with the Philippines ‘…at the sharp end of this, facing frequent challenges to freedom of navigation and international law’. The Foreign Secretary further stated that Britain and the Philippines were committed to a ‘rules-based international order’ and the UK and world economy ‘depends on trade routes being safe and secure.’
HM Government summoned Andrey Kelin, Ambassador of Russia to the UK, to protest the harassment of British diplomats in Russia. In a press release, the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) stated that ‘Russia has pursued an increasingly aggressive and coordinated campaign of harassment against British diplomats…Russia’s expulsion this week of a British diplomat and diplomatic spouse is yet another escalation.’ In response to Moscow’s actions, HM Government announced that it has expelled a Russian diplomat and their partner.
Between 12th and 14th March, Lammy was in Charlevoix, Canada for the Group of Seven (G7) Foreign Ministerial Meeting. At the meeting, Lammy attended eight sessions, focusing on Ukraine and other global security challenges. On the 14th, the ministers released a joint communique which reaffirmed the G7 nations’ ‘unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its territorial integrity and right to exist, and its freedom, sovereignty and independence.’ The communique also called on Russia to agree to a ceasefire on equal terms and to fully implement such an agreement.
Last week, Catherine West, Minister for the Indo-Pacific, visited Malaysia and Brunei:
In Malaysia, West held bilateral talks with Datuk Mohamad bin Haji Alamin, Deputy Foreign Minister of Malaysia, with the two ministers reaffirming their nations’ commitment to working on shared challenges ‘from global health to international peace and security’. West also stated HM Government’s support for Malaysian chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for 2025.
In Brunei, West took part in the fourth UK-Brunei Strategic Dialogue, focusing on economic growth, education, the protection of nature and national security. West also visited the British Army base located in the small Southeast Asian nation.
Defence
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) signed a contract worth £65 million with CGI UK, an IT systems integration specialist, for new software to help the UK Space Agency better monitor and protect satellites. The Borealis command, control and data processing system will enhance the UK’s ability to monitor and protect crucial space assets, improve space domain awareness, and help to integrate command and control systems across the UK Armed Forces.
The Royal Navy received its first uncrewed mine hunting vessel, known as Ariadne. Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs) will enable the Royal Navy to locate and eliminate sea mines more efficiently and without putting naval personnel at risk. Produced by Thales UK, the programme for the Ariadne forms part of a joint UK-France initiative with a total contract value of £361 million, managed by the Organisation for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR).
On 14th March, Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced a £2 billion increase to UK Export Finance’s Direct Lending capacity for defence, an increase from £8 billion to £10 billion, with the aim of strengthening the competitiveness of Britain’s defence industry on the global stage. The uplift is expected to ‘unlock’ further opportunities for UK defence exports, including missiles, aircraft and armoured vehicles, for overseas buyers.
Environment and climate
Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, flew to Beijing last week for the first formal talks on climate change and energy since 2017. Miliband met with Wang Hongzhi, National Energy Administration Minister of the PRC, and Huang Runqiu, Ecology and Environment Minister of the PRC, to announce new annual UK-China climate dialogue talks and to ‘commit to pragmatic engagement on the climate crisis’, cooperating with the PRC to reduce global emissions.
How Britain is seen overseas
War on the Rocks released an article critiquing the AUKUS agreement for potentially failing to provide Australia with nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) on schedule. The article states that problems in British submarine manufacturing will likely result in SSN-AUKUS running late, particularly as British submarine facilities are currently focused on delivering Astute and then Dreadnought class submarines for the Royal Navy. Finally, the author highlights that the shifting priorities from the Indo-Pacific to Europe for British defence could result in further delays to AUKUS Pillar I.
How competitors frame Britain
Russia Today reported on comments made by Dmitry Medvedev, former President of Russia, who stated that Britain and France could trigger ‘all-out war’ with Moscow if they decide to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine. Repeating Russian talking points, Medvedev claims that London and Paris are providing ‘military aid to the neo-Nazis in Kyiv’. Typical swill from the Kremlin, which could end the war at any time by withdrawing from occupied Ukrainian territory.
The Embassy of the PRC in the UK released a statement criticising the comments made by Lammy while in the Philippines, with a spokesperson claiming that the PRC’s territorial sovereignty and interests in the South China Sea are ‘solidly grounded in history and law’ and that ‘China’s activities in relevant waters are legitimate, lawful, and beyond reproach’. The statement concludes by demanding that the UK ‘as a country outside the region’ should respect ‘China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights…in the South China Sea’. It seems as though Lammy standing up for international law touched a nerve in Beijing.
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
An unpredictable Trump administration has been causing uncertainty throughout Europe over whether the US would come to the defence of its North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies on the continent in the event of an attack. In conjunction with the British deterrent, the American nuclear security umbrella has helped protect Western Europe for decades, but questions are now arising over how the European nuclear states should view their own nuclear deterrents – in the UK’s case, the continuous at-sea deterrent (CASD) of four Vanguard class submarines armed with Trident II missiles.
So, how does Britain think about its nuclear deterrent? There are three rough camps:
Status quo: The UK should keep CASD as the basis of its nuclear security, focusing on the transition from the Vanguard to the new Dreadnought class submarines to carry the missiles. This has been the predominant view for many years, and funding for CASD has been continuous.
Unilateral disarmament: The British nuclear disarmament movement ebbed and flowed over the course of the Cold War and afterwards, but there remains a cohort who believe in unilateral British nuclear disarmament and campaign to achieve the removal of the Trident programme.
Strategic autonomy: Instead of relying on the US for Trident – the missiles are manufactured in the US and are drawn from a common pool shared with the US Navy – the UK should follow the example of France and move towards strategic autonomy, with its own independently-developed missiles (the UK produces its own warheads), whether still an at-sea deterrent or also moving into the other two legs of the nuclear triad: air and land. This would be very expensive and take a long time, but this view is gaining salience given that strategic autonomy would solve the problem of reliance on the US.
While the current UK government is committed to funding CASD and the Dreadnought programme, the question of strategic autonomy will gain traction if America continues to look less and less like a reliable ally.
The UK has committed £800 million to contribute towards the service life extension programme of the Trident missiles, which will keep them in service until the early 2040s. Estimates vary, but to design and build a domestic replacement would be many times more expensive. At a time of tight budgets and the pressing need to invest in Britain’s conventional forces, HM Government will be unlikely to abandon Trident unless the situation drastically changes. But a sub-strategic deterrent may receive further consideration.
This section is named after Gould Francis Leckie, author of An Historical Survey of the Foreign Affairs of Great Britain (1810) – the first modern geopolitical text.
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