Forming a European coalition: Britain leads the charge
The Cable | No. 10.2025
Welcome to the 33rd Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
It has been another tumultuous week in global affairs, with Donald Trump, President of the United States (US), and his administration continuing to hold Europeans to account for decades of insufficient defence spending – albeit in a way that tests the transatlantic relationship. As Europe scrambles to respond, His Majesty’s (HM) Government has been engaging with allies and partners across the world to enhance the United Kingdom’s (UK) position.
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As America holds Europeans to account, Britain charts a way forward
Six weeks into his second term as president, Trump has piled the pressure on European countries for their insufficient investment in defence, and threatened the world with blanket tariffs. And with Russia continuing its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Britain finds itself trying to balance between a more transactional America and the revisionist powers of the CRINK – the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, Iran and North Korea. As a result, HM Government is engaged in a campaign to strengthen its ties across the Euro-Atlantic.
In Europe, Britain is positioning itself as the new custodian of the Euro-Atlantic order. Following the crisis summit held at Lancaster House in London on 2nd March, the UK called for a so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ to step up support for Ukraine, with a follow up ‘virtual meeting’ set for this Saturday. This is not simply rhetoric: HM Government’s recent announcement to increase defence spending to 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and provide further loans to Kyiv, gives Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, significant political heft.
Likewise, as the only nuclear powers in Europe, Britain and France are forging a closer relationship. Firstly, Sir Keir and Emmanual Macron, President of France, have launched a coordinated campaign to try to keep the Trump administration engaged in Europe and Ukraine. Secondly, France has agreed to help lead any coalition of the willing in Ukraine, and thirdly both governments have recognised the need to cooperate in developing a strong European defence industrial sector.
Key diplomacy
Sir Keir held talks with several world leaders over the last week, including:
Following the meeting of European Union (EU) leaders on 7th March, the Prime Minister spoke with António Costa, President of the European Council, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and the leaders of Canada, Turkey, Norway and Iceland. Sir Keir expressed his approval of the EU plans to bolster its own defence and discussed with the other world leaders the coalition of the willing for Ukraine and the Chiefs of Defence meeting in Paris on 11th March.
On 8th March, the Prime Minister spoke with Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister of Australia, where he reiterated Britain’s commitment to the AUKUS programme and welcomed Canberra’s announcement that it is considering contributing troops to a coalition of the willing.
On 4th March, the Prime Minister spoke to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine. The two national leaders discussed the need to secure a lasting peace for Ukraine and the prime minister informed Zelenskyy of his recent call with Trump.
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, and Jonathon Reynolds, Secretary of State for Business and Trade, visited Japan last week for the first UK-Japan Economic 2+2 Ministers Meeting with Takeshi Iwaya and Yoji Muto, their counterparts. A sign of the growing importance of the relationship, as only the US enjoys such a dialogue with Japan. The discussions focused on economic growth, energy security and deepening security cooperation between the two island nations.
Over the last week, ministers of HM Government engaged with the new US administration:
On 6th March, John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, flew to Washington for talks with Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defence of the US, on the future of UK-US defence relations and the planned peace negotiations to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The two hailed the ‘unparalleled depth of the UK-US relationship’, and agreed for both countries to continue their deep collaboration in security matters, including intelligence sharing and the development of advanced technologies.
Reynolds spoke to Howard Lutnick, Commerce Secretary of the US, in a bid to carve out an exemption for the UK to the proposed 25% US tariffs on global steel and aluminium.
On 6th March, HM Government lifted asset freezes on 24 Syrian entities, to support the economic reconstruction and political transition of Syria, following the overthrow of the Bashir al-Assad regime in December. The entities that have seen their assets unfrozen include the Central Bank of Syria, Syrian Arab Airlines, and state-owned energy companies. However, sanctions remain in place on Assad regime members and those involved in the Captagon trade.
The UK and India have announced plans to ‘bolster’ trade ties following the visit to London by Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Indian External Affairs Minister, on 5th March. Jaishankar and Lammy met to drive forward the UK-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, focusing on providing mutual economic growth and collaboration on global challenges and technological innovation. The two men also discussed Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East and other geopolitical affairs.
Defence
Six Bulgarian nationals have been convicted of operating a Russian spy ring in the UK. The group was found to have been carrying out surveillance and intelligence-gathering operations for Russia, which included monitoring political figures, journalists and military sites, as well as staging a protest outside the Kazakhstan embassy in London. The group is set to be sentenced in May.
The Ministry of Defence (MOD), has signed a deal with Anduril UK, a British-American defence company, to provide advanced drones for Ukraine. The new contract for nearly £30 million, which is backed by the International Fund for Ukraine, will see Anduril UK supply Altius 600m and Altius 700m drones – known as loitering munitions – which are ‘designed to monitor an area before striking targets that enter it.’
Maria Eagle, Minister of State for Defence Procurement and Industry, gave a speech on March 6th in which she called for European countries to enhance their defence industrial capabilities. Highlighting the geopolitical moment, Eagle stated that ‘transforming European defence industrial capabilities and boosting capacity are going to be integral to this defining mission of our time.’ She went on to stress that Britain and France – as Europe’s nuclear powers – should ‘spearhead’ this transformation, via deeper defence industrial cooperation.
Friedrich Merz, the likely next Chancellor of Germany, has stated his intention to reach out to France and Britain to discuss the possibility of a nuclear sharing agreement to augment existing arrangements.
Environment and climate
While in Cape Town last week, Rachel Kyte, Special Representative for Climate, emphasised Britain’s ongoing support for South Africa’s energy transition through the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). Kyte also announced a new financial package to support South African electricity market reform.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) has announced £55 million in grant funding into the Port of Cromarty Firth in Scotland to develop the UK’s floating offshore wind sector. Once operational in 2028, Cromarty Firth will become the UK’s first port capable of making floating offshore wind turbines at scale. The project is expected to provide approximately 1,000 high-skilled jobs.
How Britain is seen overseas
The Hudson Institute released a commentary, analysing Britain’s intention to hand over sovereignty of the British Indian Overseas Territory (BIOT) to Mauritius. Arguing that the strategic position of the joint UK-US military base on Diego Garcia as a ‘bridge’ between the Atlantic and Pacific has become even more important than it was during the Cold War, the author states that the deal will provide ample opportunity for Beijing to use lawfare to undermine the future of the base.
How competitors frame Britain
Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia, stated that Britain’s plan to deploy a reassurance force to Ukraine would amount to ‘direct official and unveiled involvement of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) members in the war against Russia’ warning that ‘It can’t be allowed.’ To avoid the deployment of British troops to Ukraine, all the Kremlin has to do is withdraw its own forces from occupied Ukrainian territory.
Following the expulsion of two British diplomats from Russia earlier this week as alleged spies, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has accused the UK of being the ‘main instigator’ of global conflict, implying that Britain was responsible for both world wars. Russia’s disinformation has become increasingly farcical.
Assessing national power
Prior to 1998, Britain operated a dual nuclear delivery system, combining a strategic dimension based on Continuous At Sea Deterrence (CASD) with a theatre-level system comprising the WE.177 bomb delivered by the Jaguar and Tornado strike aircraft. In 1998, the theatre-level system was withdrawn, leaving the UK with only CASD.
CASD depends on Trident missiles armed with nuclear warheads and four Vanguard class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). Four submarines guarantee that one is available at all times, hence the continuous at sea deterrent. Maxed out, each Royal Navy SSBN can carry up to 16 Trident missiles, each armed with up to 12 100 kiloton nuclear warheads. If fully deployed, a single submarine could unleash up to 19.2 megatons of devastation, more than enough to level any rival.
To save money after the 2008 Financial Crisis, though, various analysts asked whether the UK could move to a ‘part time’ at sea deterrent. The 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review determined that the British CASD could be cut to a bare minimum: 40 warheads on eight Trident missiles, possibly with one missile being equipped with a single warhead for use in a non-strategic role. This limited configuration may have been revised by the 2021 Integrated Review where HM Government decided to increase the British nuclear stockpile and cloak its nuclear posture for the purposes of ‘strategic ambiguity’.
It is increasingly unclear as to whether Britain’s post-Cold War nuclear posture is sufficient for the new geopolitical realities; debate is starting to pick up over whether the UK should regenerate a theatre-level system. What is clear is that nuclear weapons are vital when a nation is confronted by a nuclear-armed foe, such as Russia. The UK probably would not have felt so confident in derailing the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine had it not had a protective nuclear screen. It is also clearer than ever that a nuclear-armed state acquires a kind of ‘gravitational pull’ – note how European NATO allies have looked to Britain (and France) to provide leadership over the last fortnight once American intentions became less clear – which provides extra diplomatic leverage and aligning power.
Those who argued for the drawdown of CASD during the late 2000s now look extremely unwise. In the modern world, nuclear weapons and the means to guarantee their delivery are central to national power.
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