Trump’s return brings uncertainty to Britain

The Cable | No. 03.2025

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Welcome to the 26th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.

The world has entered a new era as Donald Trump returns to the White House as the 47th President of the United States (US). It remains to be seen what impact the new administration will have on global affairs, but expect a bumpy ride. In Britain, His Majesty’s (HM) Government has been engaged in numerous diplomatic activities from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific: most importantly of all, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, has been in Ukraine and Poland, bolstering the defence of Europe; John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, met with his Japanese counterpart for bilateral security talks; and a number of British ministers were engaged in efforts to foster closer economic ties and investment across the world.

Welcome back to The Cable!

Rewriting the rules: Britain and Trump’s America

The United Kingdom (UK) finds itself buffeted by the worsening geopolitical environment, stagnant economic growth and rising political divisions. As a result, Britain will have to find ways to work with the new Trump administration, whose approach to foreign policy will be transactional, even imperious. On top of this, the ideological divide between Sir Keir and Trump is immense, exacerbated by the recent attacks directed at HM Government from Elon Musk, Administrator of Trump’s new Department of Government Efficiency, who has become a central figure in the President’s orbit.

The UK will have to recalibrate to this new Trumpian outlook, with HM Government likely to feel pressure to increase defence spending and follow a less accommodationist stance to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Likewise, key British policies, such as supporting Ukraine in its struggle against Russia’s invasion, global climate action and support for free trade and international law, are likely to cause friction in the relationship over the next four years.

However, the UK brings many benefits to the table, which could ensure the special relationship continues to endure and thrive. As shown in a recent Kratos, Britain remains a powerful force on the world stage; its nuclear deterrent, comparatively high defence spending, advanced economy and deepening presence in the Indo-Pacific are benefits that a more transactional and imperious America will surely recognise and appreciate.

Britain focuses on Eastern Europe

The new Labour government’s attempt to ‘reconnect’ with Germany and France shortly after taking office led many analysts to ask whether Britain was returning to its ‘default position’ in Europe. Last week, Britain returned to cultivating links with its increasingly important Eastern European allies and partners. During his first official visit to Ukraine on Thursday, Sir Keir signed a landmark ‘100-year partnership’ with Kyiv, to ‘broaden and deepen the relationship across defence and non-military areas...’. There, the two quasi-allies agreed to:

• Establish a ‘new framework’ to bolster maritime security in the Baltic, Black and Azov seas and deter Russian aggression;

• Promote other forms of cooperation, including scientific and technological partnerships, a new Grain Verification Scheme to track stolen agricultural products from occupied Ukrainian territories, and a new funding mechanism for economic recovery in Ukraine;

• Boost collaboration on energy and critical resources. Of particular note, the agreement cements the UK as a ‘preferred partner’ in Ukraine’s energy sector and critical minerals strategy. Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine was a key supplier of mineral resources, holding around 5% of the world’s known reserves. This includes large deposits of many critical minerals such as titanium, copper, lithium, graphite and gallium.

Further, following his visit to Kyiv, Sir Keir travelled to Poland to meet with Donald Tusk, his Polish counterpart, to begin negotiations on a new defence agreement between the two countries. Building on the initial agreement between London and Warsaw of 2018, the new treaty will go broader and deeper; it will strengthen military cooperation and defence-industrial ties between the two Euro-Atlantic military powers, counter illegal migration, enhance energy security, and protect critical infrastructure. Negotiations for the new agreement may begin before the end of January.

As a genuinely pan-European power, Britain has interests on all sides of the continent. But this shows that the new British government is as aware as its predecessor of the changing balance of power between ‘Old’ and ‘New’ Europe.

Key diplomacy

• HM Government has confirmed that it will await consultations with the Trump administration before finalising a deal with Mauritius over the future status of the British Indian Overseas Territory (BIOT). It is believed that the incoming administration opposes the deal, with Marco Rubio, Trump’s new Secretary of State, recently stating: ‘The deal poses a threat to US security by ceding the archipelago – with its base used by US long-range bombers and warships – to a country allied with China.’

• Over the last week, HM Government has been active in fostering closer economic ties and exploring trade opportunities across the world:

  • Baroness Chapman of Darlington, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State (Latin America and Caribbean), flew to Santiago, Chile on 14th January for bilateral talks focused on economic growth, trade, climate, science, and gender equality programmes;

  • Stephen Doughty, Minister of State for Europe, North America and Overseas Territories, visited Madrid and Lisbon last week for discussions with ministers from both Iberian governments and senior representatives from key European businesses to foster closer ties and opportunities for investment in Britain;

  • Anwar Ibrahim, Prime Minister of Malaysia, met with Sir Keir on 15th January to conclude a £4 billion investment deal in the UK. YTL, a Malaysian conglomerate, will invest £2 billion into one of the largest brownfield developments in Europe near Bristol, with the remaining £2 billion invested in YTL’s UK businesses over the next five years.

• David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, released a statement following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in which he praised ‘a moment of hope after over a year of agony’ and called for the ceasefire agreement to be followed in full. He concluded by saying that Britain will work ‘alongside our partners, to seize this chance for a better future’.

Defence

• On 15th January, Healey met with Gen Nakatani, Minister of Defence of Japan, to discuss strengthening defence cooperation between the two island nations, including:

  • Recent developments in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) – the joint venture between the UK, Italy and Japan to develop a sixth generation fighter aircraft. The pair confirmed that Reading will host the headquarters of GCAP. Additionally, Oka Masami, former Vice Minister of Defence for International Affairs of Japan, was announced as the first Chief Executive of the GCAP International Government Organisation (GIGO);

  • Plans for the UK Carrier Strike Group’s visit to Japan later this year, which may involve the Japan Self-Defence Forces (JSDF) protecting the group – making the UK the third country to receive such support from Japan; and

  • The beginning of Exercise VILGILANT ISLES in Japan, where over 100 British Army personnel are taking part in training operations with the JSDF.

• The Ministry of Defence (MOD) is reportedly exploring options for selling the recently decommissioned Albion class landing platform docks to foreign buyers. Responding to a question raised by James Carlidge, Member of Parliament for South Suffolk (and a former Secretary of State for Defence), regarding the future of the two ships, Maria Eagle, Minister for Defence Procurement and Industry, stated ‘the Royal Navy is exploring options to sell both HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark in a government-to-government sale’. According to reports, Brazil is a leading candidate for such a sale.

Environment and climate

• Construction on the second stage of a major battery energy storage system project is set to begin on the site of a disused coal mine in South Lanarkshire, Scotland. Alongside this announcement, the developers, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), also confirmed that work on a similar sized project in Fife will start this year. Due to the growth of renewable energy sources, the new storage systems are required to help balance electricity supply, with the National Grid stating that the UK needs to expand them six-fold by 2030 to meet climate targets. Both projects are expected to fully enter service in 2027, providing a total storage capacity of three gigawatt hours (GWh).

How Britain is seen overseas

The German Institute for International and Security Affairs published a working paper discussing the need to revitalise the ‘E3’ format between Britain, France and Germany to enhance leadership on European security. Due to concerns over Trump’s commitment to Euro-Atlantic security, the paper argues that a reformed E3 should focus on stepping up support for Ukraine, strengthening the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) European pillar, securing Europe’s neighbourhood, and engaging more in the Indo-Pacific. However, the paper acknowledges that despite Britain’s desire to ‘reconnect’ with Germany and France since July 2024, political instability in both continental countries could be a considerable obstacle to E3 reform.

How competitors frame Britain

• Maria Zakharova, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson for the Russian Federation, released a statement following the announcement of the 100-year partnership between Britain and Ukraine. Zakharova called the agreement ‘symbolic but non-binding’ and proclaimed that it will turn Ukraine ‘into a new British colony’. This is some chutzpah: after all, it is the Kremlin, not the UK, which launched a war of imperial conquest against Ukraine.

• Sputnik International released propaganda in which it interviewed recently captured Ukrainian soldiers, who decried the training they received in Britain and other European countries. ‘They don’t get it. Assaults, raids – that’s their old system…When you try to explain the modern realities of war to them, it’s shocking for them – they don’t understand it.’ An interesting take for Russian state media to take when they send their soldiers, ill-equipped and with almost no training, to the frontline to take part in ‘meat grinder assaults’ against well-defended Ukrainian positions.

How Britain thinks about foreign affairs

The re-election of Donald Trump heralds a new chapter of the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and the US. How will Trump’s return affect how Britain views its closest and most powerful ally?

Analysis of the special relationship is best viewed through a series of layers:

• Leaders: the relationship between the Prime Minister and the President;

• Bureaucracy: the relationships between British and American state officials;

• Public: the broader cultural interaction between the two nations, which share the same history until 1783 (when Britain recognised American independence).

Implications

The top layer is where Trump’s re-election makes the most difference. Periods of particular closeness between the UK and the US are often mirrored by close personal relationships between the contemporary Prime Minister and President – think of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan during the Cold War, or Tony Blair and George W. Bush during the so-called ‘Global War on Terror’. Given that Trump places strong weight on his personal connection with a fellow leader, this dimension of the UK-US partnership may become particularly important. During his first term, Trump reportedly got on well with Boris Johnson, but it is far less easy to imagine him striking up a friendship with the more formulaic Sir Keir. Relations based on professional courtesy rather than real rapport are more likely this time around.

The official-to-official relationships of the second layer will depend, to some extent, on the disposition of the personnel nominated to fill political positions throughout the American government. However, the long-term interweaving of British and American interests through bilateral, minilateral and multilateral alliances, supported by personal interactions, means that there is unlikely to be anything other than a close working relationship on the bureaucratic level.

Public opinion in the UK seems likely to follow the pattern it did during Trump’s first term (and, indeed, the Bush presidency) – strong disapproval of the president himself but generally warm views of America and its people. The next four years will reflect the theme repeated during the more unpopular US administrations: ‘We may not like your president, but we still like you!’

This section is named after Gould Francis Leckie, author of An Historical Survey of the Foreign Affairs of Great Britain (1810) – the first modern geopolitical text.

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